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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 18:36:11 GMT
I don't see championships with Hulk, Sainz or Perez either. I would rather expect the French (Monegasque) legion to conquer F1, Gasly, Leclerc or maybe Ocon who I still rate very highly. Let's see if what I think make sense. Me too I like Ocon, he's handled Perez alright as a rookie. I agree about the French drivers, one or two of them promise they might make it, if they get their breaks. Whether they are all-time aces in Hamilton's league is another matter, not many are. I agree Ricciardo is not in that league, but he is one of the currently very few who has shown he can hold it together and deliver; it is conceivable that with a top car he could challenge for a whole season. As would Max, who on a lap is marginally quicker than Ricciardo. He's younger and self-confident enough he will start to put in a row pole positions and wins in due course, with the right situation in place. That is the expectation. Hulk and Perez, it's not going to happen after almost ten years in the sport without much to show if not solid drives, "saving tires drives" and all that. Hulk seems the quicker, but again look at Bottas as comparison, in a very good car he's there or thereabouts to get some spoils here and there, but not quite to sustain the challenge over a season. To do that you have also to learn to stay at the front constantly, handle the pressure, from the competition and your teammate, AND beat them. Nine seasons as a backmarker is not the track record that suggests one all at once becomes a world beater. Sainz has flashes of brilliance, he might get a break, perhaps, for a number of reasons, but not on a McLaren and at RB he would have to deal with Max and I don't think he would come on top there. Sainz doesn't look a better driver than Ricciardo to me, doesn't look he is as clever and clean as driver, every so often loses his cool on track, and would be surprised if he will end up winning more GPs than Daniel. Although he might well do. My summary Proven winners: Hamilton, Vettel (and Alonso, perhaps) Hopeful winners: in the order - Verstappen, Ricciardo Winners (on a single day): in the order - Bottas, Raikkonen Green hopes: Ocon, Gasly, Leclerc, Sainz Midfielders, no hopers: the Hulk, Perez, Grosjean/Jarier Going nowhere: Stroll, Hartley, Eriksson Don't know, hence don't have a clue: Sirotkin, Magnussen, Vandoorne. Usual disclaimers apply. In particular, next week I may have a different view.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2018 0:17:23 GMT
The sport is completely changed as it once was. Now it is controlled by the manufacturers, independents struggle and one way, perhaps the only one, to survive is becoming satellite to the top teams. But they won’t be challenging for titles. The new rules might change the status quo, but won’t change the economic gravity, unless they cap the budget. Unlikely. As a further result of that, world champions now tend to be more and more multiple world champions. Because they exploit the competitive advantage and returns that situation affords, besides the reliability of current machines, which once was a mirage.
Now, there are three, or more likely two top teams. One can become world champion only racing for those two teams. Would Newey alone be enough to tip it towards a third team, whether RB or if he joins Renault? It seems increasing unlikely, even at his best, his contribution would be a third or a quarter only of what is required to complete the puzzle: engine, driver, depth of the team.
Four winning seats, of which two are taken by Hamilton and Vettel. They both may have had enough relatively soon, too. Who fills the other two, who is capable to challenge the status quo and get in the top bracket above, “proven winners”? Who can step up to the challenge? That is all I am trying to understand. Max is the first suspect, of course. Raikkonen these days is more in the “no hopers” category, questionable whether he still warrants a top seat. I don’t think he does anymore. Ferrari may have missed a trick by letting Ricciardo go, particularly if Vettel doesn’t deliver. Short of getting Hamilton himself or chasing Max. I posit the “midfielders” are not good enough for that challenge, or they would already have been there. Perez was dropped by McLaren, the last relatively good one, after only one season.
I think in the medium-short term, two or three years, there is scope and opportunity for two or three of the young guns to be tested and establish themselves at the top table. If Hamilton and Vettel retire, promoting people who didn’t show brilliance with the independent teams for years – Bottas is a case in point – only lowers the quality of the top echelon. It doesn’t make it more compelling. The Hulk at Ferrari, say, would take quite a spin to sell it as a progress of the sport.
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Post by René on Aug 4, 2018 10:27:33 GMT
Some interesting musings there Lucio. Not much to disagree with although I would put Verstappen amongst the proven winners. Only his first win could be considered 'lucky' with the Mercs eliminated but the other three were simply because he was the best on that day. In contrast to Danny who does his winning in special circumstances (which is also a quality) with the exception of this years Monaco GP. But anyway, I agree with the rest. I think that all the drivers who reach F1 on merit (by winning a lot in lower formulae) are exceptionally good drivers. And when given the chance, there is not a lot to choose between them. Indeed, look at Bottas. And then there are a few of this elite group who can take it even one step higher, the Hamiltons and Vettels. Max is clearly on his way to this 'super-elite' group, although there is still some polishing to do and maybe there is a new mega star in the group Leclerc/Ocon/Gasly/Russell/Norris. Time will tell but exciting times with so much talent.
But the fact you need to have a Mercedes or Ferrari seat to become World champion is not a very healthy situation, especially when there is nothing on the horizon that can change this situation. As you say, with the smaller teams becoming satelite teams this is even less likely to change. When even Red Bull can't put up a serious challenge, who can?
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Post by chrisb on Aug 4, 2018 10:44:07 GMT
the problems are manyfold, the power train doesn't help, when we had a plethora of engines available so that more than 2 manufacturers were capable of winning regularly - that was exciting and as you say Rene, healthy - but we know that despite our attempts of enthusiasm this modern F1 is a struggle and losing more fans than it can afford to. when two of the great teams and they were customer teams, dominated from 1980 to 2000 are nowhere in the modern world that is further evidence of the malaise -
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Post by charleselan on Aug 4, 2018 11:54:05 GMT
Some very interesting comments above, and sadly very true about the state of Formula One today. This current formula does not rock my boat, even though I still watch as it is had to break a life long habit.
Unfortunately these fools that run F1 and those that participate, have no idea or interest in making things more appealing to the majority of followers. I read with almost a disdainful humour the comments of those that write such rubbish about this "wonderful spectacle" and that they have seen such "amazing racing".
The biggest problem is the fact that those that currently dominate, or have large slice of the action, have too much say in what the rules should be. That should never be the case in any sport, the rules should be set by the governing body and that should also have no agenda. If a manufacturer or entrant does not like the rules than move on. With these current rules and those proposed for the future, no new entrant is going to come in.
This firstly goes back to the poison duo who drew up regulations for F1 entry, that made it virtually impossible for a new team(s) to enter the series. This to all intent and purpose was restrictive practice and narrow sighted for the future. Now we have the four big manufacturers calling the shots and from what we read about things current, they will lock even more down.
The unhealthy current climate in F1 will continue to disenfranchise followers and fans, but these fools cannot, or do not wish to see that fact. Not even Colin Chapman could have overcome this current level of two car team dominance, where they are capitalising on huge financial resources that others cannot compete with.
When we have excellent drivers tooling around without a hope of victory or even a rostrum, how do we know how good these guys could be in the right car, we don't as it is pure supposition. Very good drivers are cast aside like chaff, especially with teams like Red Bull. Brendon Hartley is a case in point, with all this talk of Toro Rosso wishing to replace him mid season, most of his efforts have been hampered by team issues. This is a guy who out performed all of the hot shots in WEC including Mark Webber, and when the car is running properly he matches the highly rated Gasly.
Another guy who is cast as a no hoper is Kevin Magnussen; however this season he has impressed me in an environment at Haas which obviously suits him. He is ultra combative and his defence, done fairly and cleanly, against Ricciardo in Hungary was superb. I bet if he had been in a car as good as the Red Bull, Ricciardo would not have got by him, even so he made him work for it unlike many others who just jump out of the way.
Now you are rambling JC, so lets get back to some proper racing in Czech Republic.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2018 12:03:16 GMT
I didn’t make myself clear, Rene’. “Proven winners” is referred to the final prize, the championship. For example, Raikkonen has won it once, but manifestly isn’t capable anymore to do it again, so I haven’t put him in that category. That is also why I was slightly doubting good ol’ Nando – you know, Abu Dhabi 2010 and all the rest… Max has yet to graduate to that step. I am betting he will, I hope my posts make this clear, although it won’t be happening with the fizz drinks, I am saying this too.
I agree they are all good drivers, but there are hundreds of them over almost seventy years. Up to that point it’s relatively ‘easy’. I am talking about the crème de la crème, those who fights for the ultimate prize and don’t blink, not even for a moment.
Of course, that only two teams can win it, is fundamentally wrong. It’s entirely a different sport wrt what it was. Now it is more like the America’s Cup. Well past meaninglessness (if it’s an English word).
No disrespect to The Hulk – I like to call him like this – in my previous post. I am sure he’s very good, but I once learned a hard lesson, from Ron Dennis.
There was an Italian driver, I wasn’t particularly a fan not because of him, just I didn’t care anymore already, although I still hoped to see an Italian driver world champion when the right guy came along, who could develop into an honest-to-God top driver given the opportunity.
Now, Fisichella seemed he had all the numbers, quicker than pretty much each and every teammate – Ralf, obliterated Button, even Alonso had to rely on uncle Flavio to assert himself. Eddie Jordan swore by him. But he never left the backmarker teams. Never got a Williams, when it still mattered; they gave him a Ferrari only as a gift to an honest career, a couple of final races.
When at a certain point it was put to Dennis why he didn’t consider Fisico, the reply was that if he rated Fisichella he would have already offered him long time, years, before the drive.
If The Hulk - or Fisichella, Grosjean, Jarier, whoever - is that good and quick, why he has never been offered a top drive?
PS: I would have a marginal note on this last point, but I'll leave it aside for the moment.
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Post by mikael on Aug 4, 2018 12:33:15 GMT
Winners (on a single day): in the order - Bottas, Raikkonen
A shame that Raikkonen at 38 has lost some "propulsion power" (Burned out? Maybe that's a too strong word.) He was absolutely outstanding in his McLaren years, and in his first year at Ferrari, his Championship year.
Alonso at 37 seems to have lost none of his motivation.
In comparison, interesting to think about that Mario Andretti was already 35 when he had his first full season in F1 and 38 when he took his Championship in '78.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2018 15:10:17 GMT
He was indeed outstanding in his McLaren years, yet didn't win the championship there.
Great guy, always with that trademark deadpan expression, but I agree with Jamie, if that is the most likeable current character... Harry Dean Stanton comes to mind.
I checked, so far The Hulk-Sainz 7-5 in qualifying. Admittedly, never crossed my mind to check in the past, recent or otherwise, where is The Hulk on the grid. Likewise Sainz. Will be interesting to see next year at Renault. Maybe. Not really. The fact is, I just can't get enthused for a team or a sport where you know a priori, before hand, a team, most of them in fact, won't be challenging next season, no matter what. Not right and not fair, the opposite of sport. On the other hand, it was like that also for most of the Thirties. If Renault had the opportunity to be a front runner next year, then obviously I would be looking at the dynamics in that team with more attention.
I suspect I am flattering Sainz by putting him in the "green hopes".
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2018 1:24:07 GMT
My “green hopes” category above is a misnomer and deluded. That category is of those who still have to prove everything. They can either go up or down. They have done nothing, so far.
That category is renamed as “limbo”.
Up to them to extricate themselves from the limbo and become front runners. I can’t help them.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2018 1:56:20 GMT
Where I am driving at, all my reflection here springs from the fact that, as a casual observer of the sport nowadays, I have been surprised by the fact that a bona fide great driver like Vettel - four WC, 51 wins, 55 pole positions, all-time great statistics – seemingly can’t come on top of Hamilton, despite having a better or marginally better car for most of the last two seasons.
Who the hell is Lewis Hamilton? It seems even in his lean years, he’s always been capable to snatch a win. He may lose interest here and there - one year with Button (not fighting for the title), another with Rosberg (on the winning car) – but it seems he is the only one who can drive round the shortcomings of the car. He’s not like Vettel or Raikkonen who if the car is not set up to their liking, they don’t perform 10/10. He always comes out when it’s wet, sure sign of quality; Vettel is often found wanting in those conditions. And he’s quick, mighty quick – always been, in reality.
Is Hamilton these last couple of years - when his car was challenged - so good that we just are not getting it?
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Post by mikael on Aug 5, 2018 4:58:20 GMT
Since watching this interview first time (2009) I had the feeling that this trip, and this chat, played an important part in convincing Lauda that Hamilton was the right man for Mercedes.
Love this part (at 3:45): Hamilton: "Especially as a driver, what you want to show the World is that you're the best, and that you can win races". Lauda: "Which you are but the car is not?" Hamilton: "Yes."
Edit: At this time he certainly was a likeable young man, as Lauda states at the end.
Nowadays I avoid reading anything about him not related directly to races.
But as a driver, I do think he's getting better year by year (but of course I'm not an expert).
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Post by René on Aug 5, 2018 10:49:46 GMT
Only recently I have said here that if I was forced to make a list of the best drivers of the current crop (including the past ten years) I would put Lewis on top. I do think he is the best driver of this generation. Fernando and Sebastian come close at times but Lewis is amazing. I do cheer for Seb because A) he's driving a Ferrari and B) I like his mentallity and sense of humor. But that is nothing against Lewis. I have no issues with his hairstyle or jewellery and tattoos. Not my cup of tea but everyone their own. I didn't like the cheeting accusations after the Silverstone race though, that was a bad act by Lewis and his team. But hey, we all make mistakes.
Ability wise, Lewis is an exceptional talent. His ability in the rain is always a pleasure to watch and I will always remember the (was it 2010?) rain washed Korean Grand Prix. During the safety car they broadcasted several radio messages from drivers responding to their engineers about the situation and they were all saying the rain was too severe, it was madness. And then there was Lewis on the radio saying "it's fine now, come on let's race!" I remember I loved that and thought that would have been Gilles's reaction if they had radio back then. It was so cool.
He certainly deserves his World titles although his Mercedes was too dominant the last few years. Certainly more dominant than the Red Bull was during Seb's title run. But the Merc is not as dominant now and he is rising to the occasion for sure. Great driver, no question.
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Post by René on Aug 5, 2018 11:07:52 GMT
An interesting article by well known German auto journalist Michael Schmidt from Auto, Motor und Sport about the problems F1 is facing right now. I have translated the article with help of Google and made some corrections. Not perfect English but good enough. TEAM COOPERATIONS IN FORMULA 1 Will Super Teams soon determine everything?Renault explains its attitude in the case of Force India with the concern that Formula 1 in the near future will end up with a few super teams and their offshoots. Chief sporting director Cyril Abiteboul wants to put the topic on the agenda of the Strategy group. Formula 1 is already a two-class society. At the front Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. Behind the rest. In between, a hole of one to two seconds. Or 200 to 600 employees. Or 100 to 250 million euros budget. The hope that a team out of the pursuit group can find a way to the top in the next two years, is almost zero. The gap compared to 2017 remained practically the same. Formula 1 has become too complex, the differences between the big three and the rest are too big. This complexity excludes newcomers for both chassis and power units. Those who try it on their own would smear themselves like Caterham, Marussia and Hispania once did. A new engine manufacturer would be like Honda. First invest a billion, then you can look forward to fourth, fifth and sixth places. Nevertheless, the rules will only marginally change. The FIA is in deep sleep, dictated by manufacturers, teams and series operators. Complicated technology drives teams to ruinIn Formula 1, the fear is at the moment that the two-tier society is being put on other feet (..). No longer in poor and rich, but in A or B team. With the same result as now. The A teams drive with respectful distance from their satellites. Being a customer team is not enough anymore. The hybrid monsters eat up the participants. Even if the engine price is capped at 12 million euros. But that's just window dressing. Expensive are the installation costs. Anyone who has to accommodate eight coolers and five controllers and kilometers of cable has to spend a lot of money doing that without aerodynamic losses. Coolers cost a fortune! Williams tried it this year and fell on its nose. Technology chief Paddy Lowe wanted to transfer the cooling concept of Mercedes to the Williams, because only this guarantees a compact design in the rear. In fact, the side boxes are heavily undercut on the Williams as otherwise hardly no other car has. Unfortunately, too high temperatures prevail under the fairing, or the various customers do not get the special cooling they need. As a consequence, the cladding is cut open. Of course, not only the engines are responsible for the ruinous development race. The aerodynamics is also becoming more sophisticated. The teams are forced to bring each race modifications to the car and to research in detail in the search for lap time. The arms race becomes a software war. Even the small teams have to keep up. Otherwise the scissors will continue to open. Changes to the front wing or the underbody devour a fortune. Not only do they have to be changed all the time, because something new is added, but because they are subject to wear. A new floor costs quickly 100,000 euros. Synergies pay off for the A- and B-TeamAs a result, the crisis breaks out in many teams. Or the hopelessness. The Force India case has now opened everyones eyes again. The team can only be saved if everyone agrees that Force India will continue to participate in the distribution of Formula One earnings with new owners. Williams, McLaren and Renault adorn themselves. Williams out of selfishness and desperation. They will be the next to reach for the bankrupt vulture. Renault, because the racing team wants to point out a development that accelerates the current problem of Formula One. There is a fear that Force India will soon become a Mercedes B team. And Williams maybe the C team. Ferrari already practices this solution with HaasF1 and is also moving towards it with Sauber. The sponsorship of Alfa Romeo and the provision of the former Ferrari driving dynamics chief Simone Resta as the new Technical Director are no coincidence. So Maranello wants to set foot in the Swiss team. The number of identical parts will increase. Red Bull will tie Toro Rosso closer in 2019. Now that they are using the same engine again and enjoying factory status at Honda, synergies make sense for cost reasons. The cooperation is also worthwhile for the A-Team. So you can cheat wind tunnel time or CFD capacity. Two development teams find out more than one. The B teams can massively reduce staff and survive. But is that good for Formula One? Is that still a premier class, if only three or four top teams build the cars and the rest use the same base model with only different colours and some minor decorations? Renault wants to bring the topic on the agendaAlarming for the representatives of the classic formula 1 is that the model HaasF1 is so successful. The US team has a good chance of finishing fourth this year and hitting Renault's balance sheet. With 220 instead of 700 people, with 125 instead of 220 million euros budget. "That's unfair," says Renault Ambassador Alain Prost. "We have to build everything ourselves. They get two-thirds of Ferrari's car. " Renault fears to be driven against the wall in the future by Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and their offshoots. Together with McLaren, we are quite isolated. "McLaren will continue to build their own cars and not become a B team," predicts Abiteboul. FIA race director Charlie Whiting fears: "Formula One could soon be dominated by two or three super-teams." Renault sports chief Abiteboul wants to draw attention to the dangerous development in Formula 1. "We have nothing against Force India. But this topic must finally be on the agenda. We have been talking for months and no one is listening. This is our chance to publicize it. " The Frenchman even finds sympathizers with his concern at Force India: "Renault is right. But they should not carry the problem on our back, please, " says sports director Otmar Szafnauer. Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff wants to take the fear away: "There will be talks about it." Michael Schmidt Motorsport-Redakteur Original article: www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/formel-1/f1-team-kooperationen/
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2018 11:12:42 GMT
Fair comment, Rene'. As far as his "lifestyle", I don't have a clue what he's up to and couldn't give a toss.
Although taking Roscoe around the pits was good fun.
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Post by Carl on Aug 5, 2018 16:58:30 GMT
I believe predicting success is often more simple. The race cars present themselves more easily for rating. This year, Mercedes and Ferrari are the best by a wide margin, each perhaps at 90 or 95 percentile. The best cars will soon attract the best drivers, and Hamilton and Vettel are about equal. There are always variables and exceptions, even within a simple framework. A driver with nearly perfect skill, a Nuvolari, Fangio, Moss, Clark, Stewart or Senna, will easily impress in a lesser car, but not for long as inevitably they find themselves in the fastest cars.
Tazio Nuvolari would easily compensate for the FW41 Williams' defects and carry it to occasional podium finishes, but a Lance Stroll would find ways to lose even with the latest Mercedes or Ferrari. With the two major variables of car and driver, providing more balanced competition is magnitudes more complicated, as perhaps it should be. The best drivers, admittedly with regular glaring exceptions, normally end up in the best cars, providing a double advantage in what will always be an inherently unfair competition.
"Yes, the strong gets more While the weak ones fade Empty pockets don't ever make the grade Mama may have, Papa may have But God bless the child that's got his own That's got his own"*
-Billie Holiday and Arthur Herzog, Jr.
*except for Lance Stroll!
So that's my simple take, and good luck to anyone wanting a more level playing field.
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